The Giants win the NL West! (10% of the time)
The latest ESPN.com MLB standings have added three more columns. In addition to all of the regular stuff that has been printed in the newspapers for ages, they now have three new columns corresponding to the probability a given team will win the division, win the wildcard, or simply make the playoffs.
You can read more about how these probabilities were computed here. They are generated by coolstandings.com. They claim to be accurate based on running historical data through the proprietary determined by coolstandings.
The core to their standings depends on the concept of expected wins. Expected wins are computed based on a teams run differential. The more runs you score than you give up and the more games you should win. The ESPN.com standings have a +/- run differential for each team. You can tell that run differential doesn't correlated perfectly with teams that win. At the time of this writing, Tampa (+78) and Boston (+76) have more or less the same run differentials, but Tampa is up 5 games on Boston. Last year, Arizona made the playoffs in spite of being outscored. However, historically, if you score a lot more runs, you win a lot more.
All of the above is designed to take us back to our heroes, the San Francisco Giants. They are given a 9.9 percent chance of making the playoffs! That is about 9.9 percent higher than I thought it would be in April. They are 5 games back of two teams
The Giants have the advantage of playing in a very weak division. The Dbacks are slumping badly. The Rockies and Padres have been huge disappointments. The Dodgers have had a lot of injury issues. I still thing 9.9 percent is a bit high. The Giants probably aren't going to get much better than they are right now. Their whole team is more or less healthy and their pitchers are throwing well right now.
We'll see how this all shakes out in September, but forgive me if I'm skeptical about this sort of thing.
Ian Ayres likes to blog about all things prediction. I'm just as skeptical of everything he writes about but a lot of it is good food for thought. Should we be able to know putt probabilities or rebound rates? Its pretty clear to me that this guy doesn't play sports at a high level.
You can read more about how these probabilities were computed here. They are generated by coolstandings.com. They claim to be accurate based on running historical data through the proprietary determined by coolstandings.
The core to their standings depends on the concept of expected wins. Expected wins are computed based on a teams run differential. The more runs you score than you give up and the more games you should win. The ESPN.com standings have a +/- run differential for each team. You can tell that run differential doesn't correlated perfectly with teams that win. At the time of this writing, Tampa (+78) and Boston (+76) have more or less the same run differentials, but Tampa is up 5 games on Boston. Last year, Arizona made the playoffs in spite of being outscored. However, historically, if you score a lot more runs, you win a lot more.
All of the above is designed to take us back to our heroes, the San Francisco Giants. They are given a 9.9 percent chance of making the playoffs! That is about 9.9 percent higher than I thought it would be in April. They are 5 games back of two teams
The Giants have the advantage of playing in a very weak division. The Dbacks are slumping badly. The Rockies and Padres have been huge disappointments. The Dodgers have had a lot of injury issues. I still thing 9.9 percent is a bit high. The Giants probably aren't going to get much better than they are right now. Their whole team is more or less healthy and their pitchers are throwing well right now.
We'll see how this all shakes out in September, but forgive me if I'm skeptical about this sort of thing.
Ian Ayres likes to blog about all things prediction. I'm just as skeptical of everything he writes about but a lot of it is good food for thought. Should we be able to know putt probabilities or rebound rates? Its pretty clear to me that this guy doesn't play sports at a high level.
posted by beatdodgers at
9:09 PM
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